Episodic occurrence of favourable weather constrains recovery of a cold desert shrubland after fire

Key to the long-term resilience of dryland ecosystems is recovery foundation plant species following disturbance. In with high interannual weather variability, understanding influence short-term environmental conditions on establishment essential for identifying vulnerable landscapes and developing restoration strategies. We asked how annual affect post-fire Artemisia tridentata, a shrub that dominates across much western United States, evaluated episodic population recovery. collected A. tridentata stem samples from 33 plots in 12 prescribed fire sites burned 8–11 years before sampling. determined individual using growth rings. measured seasonal soil at study if these predicted density. then whether patterns could be by site-level climate or dominant subspecies. Finally, we tested effect magnitude frequency episodes Annual recruitment was driven availability spring moisture. highest wetter soils (relative [RI] = 19.4%) later dry-down (RI 11.8%) year establishment. Establishment density declined greatly 4 5 after 17.1%). Post-fire were poorly mean (marginal R2 ≤ 0.18) subspecies 0.43). Population reflected magnitude, but not frequency, early pulses. cover (measured fire) more strongly related largest pulse than suggesting may occur single favourable year. Synthesis applications. This demonstrates importance periods Management strategies increase opportunities seed coincide conditions, such as retaining unburned patches repeated seeding treatments, can improve outcomes high-priority areas.